How can I accurately curve the Bitcoin mining calculator to account for difficulty increase?
Lets say I buy one antminer s9, and run it somewhere I can get free electricity. A typical bitcoin mining profitability calculator will say that at 1300watts, I'll make around 500$ a month. Thats a projected 6k per year which is an amazing ROI, but I want to know how I can accurately account for increasing difficulty costs. I know that we can never fully predict the fluctuation of bitcoin prices and mining costs, but I want to hear from people who have been in the game a while, what they think. When does mining difficulty increase to a point where the s9 is no longer viable with a typical american electricity cost of 8cents per kilowatt hour? When is it no longer viable for hobbyists at all?
I have done my fair bit of research on bitcoin and how mining works and difficulty. Most people on different crypto reddit and blogs are indicating that mining is almost over for individuals and is only for corporations. I have an electricity rate of 0.0075$/kWh. And an investment of $100k. From what I have researched it could still be beneficial. While i could still just buy bitcoin, mining seems safer and could turn into a passive income. With the recent increase in difficulty that could prove that it's getting alot harder for day to day miners to keep at it. Any thoughts?
https://github.com/gridcoin-community/Gridcoin-Research/releases/tag/220.127.116.11 Finally! After over ten months of development and testing, "Fern" has arrived! This is a whopper. 240 pull requests merged. Essentially a complete rewrite that was started with the scraper (the "neural net" rewrite) in "Denise" has now been completed. Practically the ENTIRE Gridcoin specific codebase resting on top of the vanilla Bitcoin/Peercoin/Blackcoin vanilla PoS code has been rewritten. This removes the team requirement at last (see below), although there are many other important improvements besides that. Fern was a monumental undertaking. We had to encode all of the old rules active for the v10 block protocol in new code and ensure that the new code was 100% compatible. This had to be done in such a way as to clear out all of the old spaghetti and ring-fence it with tightly controlled class implementations. We then wrote an entirely new, simplified ruleset for research rewards and reengineered contracts (which includes beacon management, polls, and voting) using properly classed code. The fundamentals of Gridcoin with this release are now on a very sound and maintainable footing, and the developers believe the codebase as updated here will serve as the fundamental basis for Gridcoin's future roadmap. We have been testing this for MONTHS on testnet in various stages. The v10 (legacy) compatibility code has been running on testnet continuously as it was developed to ensure compatibility with existing nodes. During the last few months, we have done two private testnet forks and then the full public testnet testing for v11 code (the new protocol which is what Fern implements). The developers have also been running non-staking "sentinel" nodes on mainnet with this code to verify that the consensus rules are problem-free for the legacy compatibility code on the broader mainnet. We believe this amount of testing is going to result in a smooth rollout. Given the amount of changes in Fern, I am presenting TWO changelogs below. One is high level, which summarizes the most significant changes in the protocol. The second changelog is the detailed one in the usual format, and gives you an inkling of the size of this release.
Note that the protocol changes will not become active until we cross the hard-fork transition height to v11, which has been set at 2053000. Given current average block spacing, this should happen around October 4, about one month from now. Note that to get all of the beacons in the network on the new protocol, we are requiring ALL beacons to be validated. A two week (14 day) grace period is provided by the code, starting at the time of the transition height, for people currently holding a beacon to validate the beacon and prevent it from expiring. That means that EVERY CRUNCHER must advertise and validate their beacon AFTER the v11 transition (around Oct 4th) and BEFORE October 18th (or more precisely, 14 days from the actual date of the v11 transition). If you do not advertise and validate your beacon by this time, your beacon will expire and you will stop earning research rewards until you advertise and validate a new beacon. This process has been made much easier by a brand new beacon "wizard" that helps manage beacon advertisements and renewals. Once a beacon has been validated and is a v11 protocol beacon, the normal 180 day expiration rules apply. Note, however, that the 180 day expiration on research rewards has been removed with the Fern update. This means that while your beacon might expire after 180 days, your earned research rewards will be retained and can be claimed by advertising a beacon with the same CPID and going through the validation process again. In other words, you do not lose any earned research rewards if you do not stake a block within 180 days and keep your beacon up-to-date. The transition height is also when the team requirement will be relaxed for the network.
Besides the beacon wizard, there are a number of improvements to the GUI, including new UI transaction types (and icons) for staking the superblock, sidestake sends, beacon advertisement, voting, poll creation, and transactions with a message. The main screen has been revamped with a better summary section, and better status icons. Several changes under the hood have improved GUI performance. And finally, the diagnostics have been revamped.
The wallet sync speed has been DRASTICALLY improved. A decent machine with a good network connection should be able to sync the entire mainnet blockchain in less than 4 hours. A fast machine with a really fast network connection and a good SSD can do it in about 2.5 hours. One of our goals was to reduce or eliminate the reliance on snapshots for mainnet, and I think we have accomplished that goal with the new sync speed. We have also streamlined the in-memory structures for the blockchain which shaves some memory use. There are so many goodies here it is hard to summarize them all. I would like to thank all of the contributors to this release, but especially thank @cyrossignol, whose incredible contributions formed the backbone of this release. I would also like to pay special thanks to @barton2526, @caraka, and @Quezacoatl1, who tirelessly helped during the testing and polishing phase on testnet with testing and repeated builds for all architectures. The developers are proud to present this release to the community and we believe this represents the starting point for a true renaissance for Gridcoin!
Most significantly, nodes calculate research rewards directly from the magnitudes in EACH superblock between stakes instead of using a two- or three- point average based on a CPID's current magnitude and the magnitude for the CPID when it last staked. For those long-timers in the community, this has been referred to as "Superblock Windows," and was first done in proof-of-concept form by @denravonska.
Network magnitude unit pinned to a static value of 0.25
Max research reward allowed per block raised to 16384 GRC (from 12750 GRC)
New CPIDs begin accruing research rewards from the first superblock that contains the CPID instead of from the time of the beacon advertisement
500 GRC research reward limit for a CPID's first stake
6-month expiration for unclaimed rewards
10-block spacing requirement between research reward claims
Rolling 5-day payment-per-day limit
Legacy tolerances for floating-point error and time drift
The need to include a valid copy of a CPID's magnitude in a claim
10-block emission adjustment interval for the magnitude unit
One-time beacon activation requires that participants temporarily change their usernames to a verification code at one whitelisted BOINC project
Verification codes of pending beacons expire after 3 days
Self-service beacon removal
Burn fee for beacon advertisement increased from 0.00001 GRC to 0.5 GRC
Rain addresses derived from beacon keys instead of a default wallet address
Beacon expiration determined as of the current block instead of the previous block
The ability for developers to remove beacons
The ability to sign research reward claims with non-current but unexpired beacons
As a reminder:
Beacons expire after 6 months pass (180 days)
Beacons can be renewed after 5 months pass (150 days)
Renewed beacons must be signed with the same key as the original beacon
Magnitudes less than 1 include two fractional places
Magnitudes greater than or equal to 1 but less than 10 include one fractional place
A valid superblock must match a scraper convergence
Superblock popularity election mechanics
Yes/no/abstain and single-choice response types (no user-facing support yet)
To create a poll, a maximum of 250 UTXOs for a single address must add up to 100000 GRC. These are selected from the largest downwards.
Burn fee for creating polls scaled by the number of UTXOs claimed
50 GRC for a poll contract
0.001 GRC per claimed UTXO
Burn fee for casting votes scaled by the number of UTXOs claimed
0.01 GRC for a vote contract
0.01 GRC to claim magnitude
0.01 GRC per claimed address
0.001 GRC per claimed UTXO
Maximum length of a poll title: 80 characters
Maximum length of a poll question: 100 characters
Maximum length of a poll discussion website URL: 100 characters
Maximum number of poll choices: 20
Maximum length of a poll choice label: 100 characters
Magnitude, CPID count, and participant count poll weight types
The ability for developers to remove polls and votes
[18.104.22.168] 2020-09-03, mandatory, "Fern"
Backport newer uint256 types from Bitcoin #1570 (@cyrossignol)
Implement project level rain for rainbymagnitude #1580 (@jamescowens)
Upgrade utilities (Update checker and snapshot downloadeapplication) #1576 (@iFoggz)
Provide fees collected in the block by the miner #1601 (@iFoggz)
Add support for generating legacy superblocks from scraper stats #1603 (@cyrossignol)
Port of the Bitcoin Logger to Gridcoin #1600 (@jamescowens)
Implement zapwallettxes #1605 (@jamescowens)
Implements a global event filter to suppress help question mark #1609 (@jamescowens)
Add next target difficulty to RPC output #1615 (@cyrossignol)
Add caching for block hashes to CBlock #1624 (@cyrossignol)
Make toolbars and tray icon red for testnet #1637 (@jamescowens)
Add an rpc call convergencereport #1643 (@jamescowens)
Implement newline filter on config file read in #1645 (@jamescowens)
Implement beacon status icon/button #1646 (@jamescowens)
Add gridcointestnet.png #1649 (@caraka)
Add precision to support magnitudes less than 1 #1651 (@cyrossignol)
Replace research accrual calculations with superblock snapshots #1657 (@cyrossignol)
Publish example gridcoinresearch.conf as a md document to the doc directory #1662 (@jamescowens)
Add options checkbox to disable transaction notifications #1666 (@jamescowens)
Add support for self-service beacon deletion #1695 (@cyrossignol)
Add support for type-specific contract fee amounts #1698 (@cyrossignol)
Add verifiedbeaconreport and pendingbeaconreport #1696 (@jamescowens)
Add preliminary testing option for block v11 height on testnet #1706 (@cyrossignol)
Add verified beacons manifest part to superblock validator #1711 (@cyrossignol)
Implement beacon, vote, and superblock display categories/icons in UI transaction model #1717 (@jamescowens)
Is worth start mining with the actual situation of the cryptocurrency market?
I've been watching the market for over 3 years now. For those years I've been a student with no money to invest, and now that I'm almost out of the university and I have some money I wanna finally start on this world. For some weeks now I've been working on a planning for building a 6 GPU mining rig, all theoretical earnings calculated with NiceHash & WhatToMine. The actual theoretical profits for this one are like 250 EU month (1.40€/day per GPU) with AMD RX 5700 , having an electricity cost of o.o79EUkWH. I've compared all the actual GPUs on the market, and that's the best one I could find in terms of ROI (I start to get profits after 1 year and 1 month). I've seen some posts talking about much better profits & less ROIs but I couldn't find a better profit for a GPU rig, maybe I'm doing something wrong! To see if the theoretical numbers are right I tested them with an RTX 2060 on my own personal computer and I had a profit of 1.20 EUR /day when the theoretical profit for that GPU was about 0.80 EUR /day. So, after all those weeks comparing, thinking about a long term Investment plan and searching for LOTS of information i conclude that it's worth spending a total of 3000 EUR into mining. Now I wanna ask you guys, with the actual situation of bitcoin (going up and up) and the difficulty raising over time...is it worth investing all that money on GPU mining right now? I'm afraid about investing the money and start to see a massive decrease in my profits, either for bitcoin going down or the difficulty going up nonstop. Also, I've not exposed all my plan, but doing it this way (mining with NiceHash and with 6 AMD RX 5700) is a nice plan or there is something with better profitability/ ROI? Maybe mining myself small cryptos and then exchange them to bitcoin, etc... All knowledge is welcomed. Btw, I'm a computer science engineer, that's why I wanna start on mining instead of trading stocks, because I know how computers work and I think that my knowledge on Pc & GPUs could help me on doing this efficiently. And sorry for my "not so good English", it's my 3rd language! Thanks all. EDIT: I could also buy the GPUs & equipment for the rig on a 2nd hand market, which would totally lower the total price of the rig, reaching ROI faster and if something goes not as expected, have less losses. Ofc buying at a 2nd hand is somehow risky but maybe worthy!
Bitcoin has become more affordable to mine in recent times.
This is due to two main factors - difficulty adjustments and cheaper electricity.
In early 2020, researches predicted that the cost to mine Bitcoin will be around $12,000 to $15,000 after the block reward halving in May.
Bitcoin mining can still be profitable for some individuals.
Some prospective mines should perform a cost-benefit analysis to understand the price before making the fixed cost purchase of the equipment.
The variables needed to make this calculation are:
Cost of power
Wondering where to mine bitcoins?
Surprisingly, bitcoin mining can also be done with the P2P crypto exchange platform and if you are worried about finding a P2P exchange platform, well you are at the right spot! Blockchain Firm offers you a P2P crypto exchange platform with avant-garde features that helps you to mine bitcoins in a hassle-free manner.
Probably the best idea is to make mining a hobby. Bitcoin mining is perhaps profitable, perhaps not, but the experience you gain is the real work. Just stock up some bitcoins for the future when a new bull market begins, and you can benefit from the rising price.
Step by Step Guide to Starting Smart Mining of ViaBTC
In order to help our miners to get the best possible profits, now we present you the step by step guide to starting Smart Mining of ViaBTC. No time for hesitation, try Smart Mining now! Smart mining consists of two different mining modes, namely as “Manual Switch” and “Auto Switch”. Auto Switch provides an automated way of profitable mining using the designated algorithm to monitor the real-time status of possible returns. In comparison to manual switch, it’s more flexible and easier to keep tracking of your mining returns. 1. Enable Auto Switch It now supports BTC、BCH and BSV, besides, your assets in your account can also be converted into BTC on an hourly basis automatically. Before enabling auto switch mode, you’re required to configure smart mining URL: stratum+tcp://bitcoin.viabtc.com:3333; Enable Manual Switch This supports Bitcoin pool (BTC, BCH, BSV, FCH) and Ethereum pool (ETH, ETC). One-click switch address is different from the stratum URL for a specified coin. Details for one-click switch URL are listed as following: BTC/BCH/BSV/FCH: stratum+tcp://bitcoin.viabtc.com:3333 ETH/ETC: stratum+tcp://ethereum.viabtc.com:3333 Noted: Port 25 or 443 is available as an alternative option. 2. Go to www.viabtc.com then click [Settings] from the drop-down menu on your right hand side. https://preview.redd.it/6rvece3anm551.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf1365d690542a9d49712fecf1c117e5e94c74f4 Click [Switch mining pool] under the [Mining Settings] to select a new coin type. https://preview.redd.it/8ag76racnm551.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b79ffb7dfde4e0b7ab51bb584815a1b8b91f30c Select “Mode” and “Coin Type” https://preview.redd.it/7zmjh3ienm551.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c2ff5f99265402def95717f4a28de71ffe17b32 Frequently Asked Questions What is the unique feature of Auto Switch compares to Manual Switch? It’s more flexible and easy to set up, SHA-256 mining algorithm compatible. How long will it take to be activated after enabling Auto Switch? Once Auto Switch is on, system will monitor the possible return rate of all compatible coins using a designated algorithm and switch to the one with higher profits, you may go to the Pool panel for more accurate mining status. Why I can’t see my earnings increased after enabling Auto Switch mode? Auto Switch mode demands high-efficiency when it switch between the current mined coins to the new one with possible high returns, specified using designated algorithm and current difficulty, thus it’s not a guarantee pass for high returns when “Auto Switch” is on. Is there any requirements of MIN. limit of hashrate before enabling Auto Switch? There is no minimum limit of hashrate in your account before enabling Auto Switch in your account. Which type of coins are supported in Auto Switch mode? Currently all types of coins in Bitcoin Pool are supported in Auto Switch mode, including BTC, BCH and BSV. When will the mining rewards distributed to my account? Rewards distribution are varies for different mining modes, and distribution time remained unchanged compares to the one in Manual Switch mode. Can I use part of hashrate to mine a designated coin after enabling Auto Switch? After enabling Auto Switch, hashrate connecting to your account will switch from one to the other automatically using a designated algorithm. Will I receive hashrate fluctuation notification after enabling Auto Switch? You’re required to set hashrate fluctuation notification for all compatible coins by the time enabling Auto Switch, more detailed guideline can be found here. How to check your current mining preference？ Go to www.viabtc.com first then enter [Pool] panel to check your current mining preference. When should I change my mining preference? It is recommended to use profit calculator to get a general idea of the theoretical earnings outcome when selecting mining preference.
Delegated harvesting lets you passively earn block rewards on-chain
Symbol has a noteworthy economic system that allows you to passively earn coin rewards just as if you were mining. This is better than staking rewards given by exchanges since you don’t need to put your coins on an exchange and you are earning actual block rewards. On most other blockchains you have to operate a node in order to earn block rewards. That can be expensive and difficult for casual users. With our delegated harvesting system, your rights to earn rewards are based on how many XYM coins you are holding, but Symbol lets you delegate those rights to someone else’s node so they will earn rewards on your behalf. You’ll earn on-chain block rewards even when your computer is turned off, and the rewards are sent to you instantly, the moment they are earned. It requires a minimum balance of 10,000 XYM, and you can do it easily through a dashboard. Here’s how it all works.
Let’s chain some blocks
A quick block reward review: the process of adding transactions and other data to a blockchain is called creating blocks, and it’s what every computer in the network is trying to do. Blockchains pay a coin reward to the first account to create a new accepted block. The reward is called a block reward. If new coins are created to pay the block reward, it’s called mining. Symbol doesn’t create new coins for block rewards so it uses the term harvesting instead, but it’s nearly the same as mining.
We want proof
What’s the point of all this mining and harvesting? The problem is that anyone can join the network anonymously, so we would expect cheaters sending false data so they can spend the same coins twice or make other fake transactions. If we don’t know who is trustworthy, how do we choose who gets “write access” to account balances? Bitcoin and many early protocols use a Proof of Work (POW) system. In POW every computer in the network is processing calculations as fast as possible until someone gets the right number. Whoever gets it first creates the next block. POW is effective at discouraging cheaters because it’s expensive to buy and power all the machines needed to mine profitably. Anyone who could make such a mining investment won’t want to risk being rejected.
Not that proof, different proof
The biggest drawback of POW is its insatiable consumption of electricity. It’s estimated that bitcoin alone consumes a quarter percent of global energy production. Unfortunately, that’s not a side effect, it’s the point; the more expensive it is to create blocks, the harder it is for bad actors to take over. In the early days users could mine POW coins on a laptop, but today it’s so expensive that only large industrial operators are competitive. The most popular alternative system is Proof of Stake. POS is well-tested and has proven secure at large scale, and best of all, it requires no special energy usage. In a POS system, the protocol chooses an account at random to be the next block creator. However, an account’s chance of being chosen depends on the number of coins it holds. So users with the highest account balances have the highest chances of creating new blocks. This is a good way to ensure security, but one downside is that it encourages hoarding.
Proof of stake plus
Symbol uses a Proof of Stake Plus (POS+) system, which adds a few weighting factors on top of Proof of Stake to incentivize a healthier economic system. For example, POS+ gives an advantage to accounts that have many recent transactions in order to encourage network usage. So if you need to pay a lot of transaction fees, that expense can be offset somewhat by higher block rewards. This addresses the hoarding problem, but not the expense and difficulty of running a node. We want everyone to participate in harvesting whether or not they are paying to run a node. Owning a minimum of 10,000 XYM automatically gives you the right to harvest, so the idea is to use your earning rights on someone else’s node. This is where delegating your stake comes in.
Keep your keys in your pocket
The tricky part is that if you gave a node operator direct access to your stake, they would be able to see your private key and possibly take your funds. Symbol solves this problem by creating a proxy account with a different private key that’s used only for delegated harvesting. This allows you to delegate your harvesting rights to any available node without allowing them access to your account. https://preview.redd.it/lhv350glzkg51.png?width=1583&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2d9af8185d027221bf7d0531a667f6ada6731d4 There’s no minimum holding time or obligations for your coins, and you can spend them just as easily as non-delegated accounts as long as your balance is 10,000 or above. If your account drops below 10,000 it will simply stop harvesting with no side effects. If the node you are working with is going down a lot or otherwise annoying you, just use the dashboard to stop delegating or switch your delegation to another node any time you like.
What’s in a block reward?
There’s one more detail: any node that you have delegated to will keep 25% of the rewards earned by your delegated stake. This is their incentive to keep their node running. If you don’t like giving them a cut, you need to run your own node. Now the good part: every block reward on the Symbol public chain will contain new tokens added for inflation, incentives for early adopters, and will also contain all transaction fees paid. 100% of transaction fees are returned to harvesters in block rewards. The system is estimated to provide about 3% to 4% returns for delegated harvesters, although rewards could be lower or higher if there are a lot of transaction fees paid.
A quick hypothetical example
Let’s say there are 1 billion XYM tokens staked on the Symbol public chain. Your account balance is 20,000. This gives you about a 1 in 50,000 chance to be the harvester of any given block. Blocks are created every 15 seconds, which adds up to 5,760 blocks per day. Your account would be expected to harvest a block reward about once every 8.7 days.
Configuration of delegated harvesting
The Symbol public chain has a requirement of 10,000 XYM minimum balance for delegated harvesting, but if you are running your own Symbol blockchain you can change it to any token and any amount you want. You can also change the inflation rate, transaction fees, and other economy settings. In a corporate private network there is usually little need for decentralization and incentives since everyone on the network will be known and trusted. In this type of private chain you can even remove transaction fees. However, since Symbol is open-source, it’s also simple to run your own public version configured with any requirements you need.
On-chain staking rewards
Staking rewards are becoming more common on exchanges, and many users are coming to expect it. That’s good because staking rewards provide more opportunity for users to earn coins and encourage new users to enter the industry. Unfortunately these custodial exchanges and wallets require users to give up their keys. It’s nearly always more secure to hold tokens off exchanges, especially if holding long term. Symbol and its original version NEM are unique in their method of allowing users to delegate their stakes and earn rewards without giving up custody and without any risk of sharing their private keys. Delegated harvesting on Symbol is likely to be the best way in the blockchain industry for users to earn on-chain staking rewards without the chore and expense of running a node. Source
Mining Bitcoin is not easy – that's why millions of dollars have been invested to research, develop, prototype and sell specialized mining hardware. Even if you invest in a specialized mining ASIC which can cost thousands of dollars, your chances of successfully validating a block on your own are slim. To conclude, a Bitcoin mining calculator can give you a much better idea about your potential to run a profitable mining operation. Remember, however, that some factors such as Bitcoin’s price and mining difficulty, change every day and can have dramatic effects on profitability, so it’s important to conduct up to date calculations when needed. The higher the mining difficulty, the less Bitcoin you get for a fixed amount of power. To justify the difficulty, prices tend to go up. The higher the price, the more people get interested in Bitcoin mining. As with any asset, more people get interested in it when prices are going up. Therefore, mining difficulty follows prices. The Bitcoin difficulty chart provides the current Bitcoin difficulty (BTC diff) target as well as a historical data graph visualizing Bitcoin mining difficulty chart values with BTC difficulty adjustments (both increases and decreases) defaulted to today with timeline options of 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and all time 2. Calculator Fields Explained. Difficulty factor – The more people are trying to mine Litecoin the harder it becomes to actually mine Litecoin. Difficulty is a metric that measures how hard it is to mine at the current moment. This information is taken automatically from the Litecoin network, you do not need to change it.
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